Manual Forecast Adjustments (UAS)

Document created by catherine.racette on Nov 6, 2017Last modified by catherine.racette on Nov 13, 2017
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Introduction

Forecasting helps you predict whether you'll have enough available inventory to fulfill the requirements of a new order or line item or to project how current line items will perform and whether they'll meet their goals. The Forecast Report is an estimate that calculates future trends based on historical data, trends and demographics. 

 

In some circumstances, you may want to manually adjust your inventory to improve the accuracy of your forecasting. For example:

  • If your account in PubMatic is new and therefore, no past trends exist in the PubMatic system on which to base future predictions.
  • If you expect significant changes in inventory, for example, with the creation or deactivation of ad units or for seasonal events such as Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

 

To address these needs, PubMatic provides a method for manually adjusting your inventory to more accurately forecast performance.

To view Frequently Asked Questions, refer to Manual Forecast Adjustments (UAS) FAQ  

How Adjustments are Applied to Forecast Reports

A single forecast adjustment may apply to many forecast reports and targeting combinations. Adjustments will be made to all forecast reports that contains the ad unit and (if applicable) ad size(s) selected in the adjustment. Additionally, the adjustment for a single ad unit may be applied in multiple ways if the ad unit contains multiple targeting parameters such as geo targets, devices, ad sizes, etc. The adjustment is calculated along with the parameters set in each applicable forecast report. 

 

Creating Adjustments

  1. Select Analytics | Inventory Adjustments (Beta) from the main navigation.


  2. Enter a name and description for the adjustment.


  3. Enter start and end dates for the period you are expecting inventory changes. The adjustment will be reflected for this date range in the Forecast Report.

Inventory Details

Enter inventory details in this section. Details will vary depending on whether you or not you have existing ad units from which to base the adjustment. Follow the instructions below to either:

Apply Adjustment from an Existing Ad Unit

Use this method to make manual adjustments for a newly created ad unit if the traffic is expected to follow the patterns of an existing ad unit. 

Before continuing with the steps below: You must first create the new ad unit to which you will apply forecasting history.

                        

  1. Select Yes to Apply Forecast History from an Existing Ad Unit.
  2. Select the existing ad unit from the drop-down list. (The forecast history will be applied from this ad unit to the new ad unit.)
  3. Select the ad unit to which you want to apply the forecast history using the Inventory for Adjustment drop-down list.
  4. Select one or more ad sizes from the Ad Sizes drop-down list if you would like the adjustment to apply to specific ad sizes. If no ad sizes are selected, all ad sizes for the ad unit in applicable forecasting reports will be considered.
  5. Enter the adjustment value in the Adjustment Percentage box. This is the percentage of change in inventory from the ad unit the forecasting history came from that is applied to the new ad unit. For example, entering 50% will increase the inventory volume by 50% from what was present in the ad unit from which the forecasting is based. Negative numbers will decrease the forecast impressions.

Apply Inventory Adjustment Directly

Use this method if you expect a type of traffic or pattern that doesn't match an existing ad unit or if this is a new account in PubMatic that doesn't have enough of a history from which to base forecasting on. Follow these steps to make adjustments directly.

Before continuing with the steps below: You must first create the ad unit to which you will make adjustments.

  1. Select No next to Apply Forecast History from an Existing Ad Unit.
  2. Select the ad unit for which you want to adjust forecasting using the Inventory for Adjustment drop-down list.
  3. Select one or more ad sizes from the Ad Sizes drop-down list if you would like the adjustment to apply to a specific ad size. If no ad sizes are selected, all ad sizes for the ad unit in applicable forecasting reports will be considered.

Forecast & Adjustment

Use this section to preview forecasted impressions and make additional adjustments.

 

To preview forecasted impressions, click Generate Forecast Preview. Make additional adjustments as needed using the Adjusted Impressions options.

  1. Select either Percentage or Total Number for which to Adjust Impressions By.
  • Selecting Percentage will adjust the impressions on the basis of the original forecast and the percentage provided in the Adjustment Percentage. See examples below.
  • Selecting Total Number will first adjust the forecasted impressions for an ad unit and its selected ad sizes to conform to the total number provided and will then apply the adjustment to any applicable parameters in the forecasting reports. See examples below.
  1. Enter the Adjustment Percentage or Total Number in the box provided.
  2. Select Save & Create Forecast Report or Save, to run the forecast report at a later time.

 

Verify Adjustments

Forecast adjustments are implemented immediately. To verify the adjustments are set, compare the new forecast for the selected ad unit with the original forecast (prior to any adjustments). 

 

Examples

The following examples demonstrate how adjustments can impact forecasting.

 

Actual Inventory Volume for the Day

Applies to Examples 1 & 2 below

            
Ad UnitAd SizeInventory/Traffic
A1S110M
A1S210M
A1S310M
A2S37M
A2S43M
A2S55M
A3 (Newly Created Ad Unit)S1

 

Example 1: Direct Adjustment by Percentage

 

Manual Forecast Adjustment Settings:

Direct adjustment applied to Ad Unit A1, across Ad Sizes S1 & S2:

 

Apply Forecast History from Existing Ad UnitNo
Inventory (Ad Unit) for AdjustmentA1
Ad SizesS1, S2
Adjust Impressions by Percentage100%
Adjustment Period1 Day

 

Examples using the forecast adjustment settings above:

Adjustment TypeExisting Forecast ParametersOriginal ForecastAdjustment Created (Rule)Adjusted ForecastComments
PercentageForecast for Ad Unit A130 MAd Unit A1 targeting for Ad Sizes S1 & S2 and Adjustment Value = 100%50 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 100% for Ad Unit A1 is intended to increase impressions for Ad Sizes S1 & S2. Even though the ad unit contains three ad sizes, the number of impressions is increased only for S1 & S2 and S3 remains as it is already set in a forecasting report.

[A1:S1 (10 M*2) + A1:S2 (10 M*2) + A1:S3 (10 M) = 50 M]

PercentageForecast for Ad Unit A1 with specific Ad Size S110 MAd Unit A1 targeting for Ad Sizes S1 & S2 and Adjustment Value = 100%20 M

In this example, the adjustment is created to increase impressions for Ad Unit A1 by 100% for Ad Sizes S1 & S2.

 

However, in a forecast report that contains Ad Size S1 targeting parameter for Ad Unit 1 (but not Ad Size S2) will only make an adjustment for the Ad Unit 1/Ad Size 1 combination. 

[A1:S1 (10 M*2) = 20M]

 

 

Example 2: Direct Adjustment by Total Number

When applying the forecast adjustment by Total Number on existing Ad Units, the Forecast Engine considers the inventory ratio while applying the adjustment with the new value.

 

Manual Forecast Adjustment Settings:

Direct adjustment applied to Ad Unit A1, across Ad Sizes S3 & S4:

 

Apply Forecast History from Existing Ad UnitNo
Inventory (Ad Unit) for AdjustmentA2
Ad SizesS3, S4
Adjust Impressions by Total Number20 M
Adjustment Period1 Day

 

Examples using the adjustment settings above:

Adjustment TypeExisting Forecast ParametersOriginal ForecastAdjustment Created (Rule)Adjusted ForecastComments
Total NumberForecast for Ad Unit A2 15 MAd Unit A2 targeting for Ad Sizes S3 & S4 and Adjustment Value = 20M25 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 20 M for Ad Unit A2 and Ad Sizes S3 and S4 is applied first so that their total impressions will equal 20 M. It takes the current ratio of impressions (7 M & 3 M respectively) and the Total Number provided into consideration first. This, along with the addition of impressions for the third Ad Size present, S5, equals the total adjusted forecast.

 

[A2:S3 (14M) + A2:S4 (6M) + A2:S5 (5 M) = 25 M]

Total NumberForecast for Ad Unit A2 with specific Ad Size S3 7 MAd Unit A2 targeting for Ad Sizes S3 & S4 and Adjustment Value = 20M14 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 20 M for Ad Unit A2 and Ad Sizes S3 and S4 is applied first so that their total impressions will equal 20 M. It takes the current ratio of impressions (7 M & 3 M respectively) and the Total Number provided into consideration first. 

 

However, in a forecast report that contains Ad Size S3 targeting parameter for Ad Unit 1 (but not Ad Size S4) will only make an adjustment for the Ad Unit 1/Ad Size 3 combination. 

 

[A2:S3 = 14M]

 

Example 3: Direct Adjustment by Percentage with other Targeting Parameters

If a forecasting report contains targeting parameters other than Ad Size, the report may adjust the forecast for those Ad Unit/Targeting Parameters as well (e.g., Geo, Devices, Ad Format, etc). For example, if you target an Ad Unit that contains three different ad sizes and two different geo targets, you'll see adjustments made for multiple combinations that apply to that ad unit, based on the manual forecast adjustments applied.

 

Ad UnitAd SizeGeo TargetInventory/TrafficAdjusted Traffic (after forecast adjustment is applied)
A1S1G15 M10 M
A1S1G25 M10 M
A1S2G15 M5 M
A1S2G25 M5 M
A1S3G15 M5 M
A1S3G25 M5 M

 

Manual Forecast Adjustment Settings:

Direct adjustment applied to Ad Unit A1:

 

Apply Forecast History from Existing Ad UnitNo
Inventory (Ad Unit) for AdjustmentA1
Ad SizesS1
Adjust Impressions by Percentage100%
Adjustment Period1 Day

 

Examples using the adjustment settings above:

Adjustment TypeForecast ParametersOriginal ForecastAdjustment Created (Rule)Adjusted ForecastComments
PercentageForecast for Ad Unit A130 MAd Unit a1 targeting for Ad Size S1 and Adjustment Value = 100%40 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 100% for Ad Unit A1 is intended to increase impressions for Ad Size S1. 

 

Since there are other (Geo) targeting parameters in the forecast report for this Ad Unit and Ad Size, they are calculated in the adjustment. Other Ad Sizes in the Ad Unit remain as is since they are not part of this adjustment.

 

[ A1:S1:G1 (5M * 2) + A1:S1:G2 (5M * 2) + A1:S2:G1 (5M) + A1:S2:G2 (5M) + A1:S3:G1 (5M) + A1:S3:G2 (5M) = 40M ]

PercentageForecast for Ad Unit A1 for specific Ad Size S110 MAd Unit a1 targeting for Ad Size S1 and Adjustment Value = 100%20 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 100% for Ad Unit 1 is intended to increase impressions for Ad Size S1.  

 

Since the forecast report contains other (Geo) targeting parameters for this Ad Unit and Ad Size, they are calculated in the adjustment. Other Ad Sizes in the Ad Unit remain as is since they are not part of this adjustment.

 

[ A1:S1:G1 (5M * 2) + A1:S1:G2 (5M * 2) = 20M ]

PercentageForecast for Ad Unit A1 for specific Geo Target G115 MAd Unit a1 targeting for Ad Size S1 and Adjustment Value = 100%20 M

In this example, the manual adjustment of 100% for Ad Unit 1 is intended to increase impressions for Ad Size S1.

 

Since the forecast report contains other (Geo) targeting parameters for Ad Unit 1, the adjusted forecast will filter only for the Geo Target of G1 and adjust traffic for only Ad Size S1. Other Ad Sizes in the Ad Unit remain as is since they are not part of this adjustment.

 

[ A1:S1:G1 (5M * 2) + A1:S2:G1 (5M) + A1:S3:G1 (5M) = 20M ]

 

Limitations

You cannot create multiple adjustments that overlap. Two adjustments are considered overlapping if they contain the same subset of inventories and their duration overlaps with each other. The following table provides examples of adjustments of which some overlap.

 

AdjustmentAd UnitsDuration
1A1, A2Dec 1 - Dec 5
2A3Dec 1 - Dec 5
3A1Dec 1 - Dec 5
4A3Dec 6 - Dec 10
5A1Dec 6 - Dec 10
6A2Dec 3 - Dec 8

 

In the adjustments above:

 

Non-Overlapping AdjustmentsOverlapping Adjustments
Adjustments 1 and 2Adjustments 1 and 3
Adjustments 3 and 4Adjustments 1 and 6
Adjustments 3 and 5

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